The median first-time homebuyer in 2026 needs a household income of $112,000 to qualify for the median-priced home of $398,000 with a standard 20% down payment — a figure that exceeds the median income for millennials by 26%, according to a sweeping new analysis from the National Association of Realtors and the Urban Institute.
The supply shortage, which has eliminated over 4 million housing units below median price over the past decade, is identified as the primary structural barrier. Analysts argue that municipal zoning laws restricting multi-family housing are the primary political driver of the crisis.
The analysis calls for sweeping federal legislation to preempt exclusionary zoning in jurisdictions that receive federal infrastructure funding. Several members of Congress have introduced bills to tie infrastructure grants to zoning reform commitments, but none have passed either chamber.